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UID:20250813T152639EDT-0759DOrC4x@132.216.98.100
DTSTAMP:20250813T192639Z
DESCRIPTION:Dr.  Michael Winton joins us from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic
 s Laboratory of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for his se
 minar titled Estimating and Using the Transient Climate Response. Refreshm
 ents will be served.\n\nAbstract\n\nWe argue that the transient climate re
 sponse (TCR) is the key sensitivity metric for determining the CO2 emissio
 ns compatible with the 2 degree global warming limit adopted by the UNFCCC
 . We make new best and upper-bound estimates of the TCR using an emergent 
 relationship between the recent global warming trend and the TCR in the CM
 IP5 models. The spread between the best and upper-bound estimates is large
 r than for the CMIP5 models\, a feature held in common with other estimate
 s using recent observations. We develop a simple method for estimating the
  CO2 emissions compatible with a given warming. Allowable emissions are sh
 own to vary more than inversely proportionally to TCR due to the effect of
  past CO2 emissions and future non-CO2 emissions. We use the method to eva
 luate a preliminary future global emissions estimate based on summing the 
 national emissions submitted for the upcoming meeting of the UNFCCC.\n
DTSTART:20151113T203000Z
DTEND:20151113T213000Z
LOCATION:Room 934\, Burnside Hall\, CA\, QC\, Montreal\, H3A 0B9\, 805 rue 
 Sherbrooke Ouest
SUMMARY:Seminar: Dr. Michael Winton
URL:/meteo/channels/event/seminar-dr-michael-winton-25
 6567
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