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UID:20250818T214257EDT-2757Pp6BDH@132.216.98.100
DTSTAMP:20250819T014257Z
DESCRIPTION:Please join us as we welcome Dr. Lance Bosart\, a Distinguished
  Professor from the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences a
 t University at Albany/SUNY\, for a seminar titled 'Continuing Forecast Ch
 allenges Associated with Terrain-Flow Interactions'. Coffee will be served
 .\n\nAbstract\n\nDespite the steady upward increase in the skill of global
  operational deterministic and ensemble prediction models as defined by th
 e anomaly coefficient metric applied to 500-hPa geopotential height foreca
 sts out to 10 days\, some important and stubborn forecast challenges remai
 n. A number of these forecast challenges can be related to terrain-flow in
 teractions in regions of complex terrain. Cold season forecast challenges 
 include temperature and precipitation type forecasting near surface bounda
 ries (e.g.\, coastal fronts) associated with cold-air damming\, secondary 
 cyclone redevelopments in the lee of mountain ranges like the Appalachians
 \, how long extensive freezing rain episodes will last in sheltered mounta
 in valleys\, mesoscale precipitation bands tied to channeled flow down con
 fluent river valleys surrounded by higher terrain\, downstream predictabil
 ity issues that can occur when upper-level disturbances of Pacific origin 
 move inland through ridge environments along the West Coast of North Ameri
 ca\, and whether\, where\, and when damaging high winds will mix down to t
 he surface in cool season high shear\, low CAPE situations. Warm season fo
 recast challenges include predicting when long-lived MCSs and derechos wil
 l cross the Appalachians and reach the Atlantic coast\, under what conditi
 ons terrain flow-interactions can contribute to the formation of tornadic 
 storms\, when predecessor rain events will occur adjacent to mountainous t
 errain ahead of tropical cyclones\, to what extent elevated mixed layers w
 ill surge eastward from the Rockies and contribute to severe weather envir
 onments on the Plains\, when severe weather will occur over southern Arizo
 na associated with shear-related MCS development over the Mogollon Rim\, u
 nder what conditions weak disturbances from the eastern Pacific can surviv
 e inland transits across the Rockies and trigger severe storm development 
 in the lee of the mountains. Several of these cold- and warm-season terrai
 n-flow interaction forecast challenges will be illustrated. Findings from 
 observational investigations will be used to inform possible predictabilit
 y studies designed to elucidate relevant dynamical and physical processes 
 will be illustrated.\n
DTSTART:20160926T193000Z
DTEND:20160926T203000Z
LOCATION:Room 934\, Burnside Hall\, CA\, QC\, Montreal\, H3A 0B9\, 805 rue 
 Sherbrooke Ouest
SUMMARY:Seminar: Dr. Lance Bosart
URL:/meteo/channels/event/seminar-dr-lance-bosart-2625
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