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UID:20250801T025649EDT-7585CtvnUT@132.216.98.100
DTSTAMP:20250801T065649Z
DESCRIPTION: \n\nStudent Seminar Series\n\nDepartment of Atmospheric & Ocea
 nic Sciences\n\npresents\n\na talk by\n\nPei-Ning Feng\n	PhD student\n\nFor
 ecast skill of the NAO in the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models\n
 \nAs the dominant mode of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere\,
  the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has important influence on the weath
 er and climate. Making useful subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts of t
 he NAO and understanding its sources of skill is of great interest. In thi
 s study\, the prediction skill of the NAO for 10 S2S models is assessed. F
 or all the S2S models\, the NAO prediction skill is up to about 13-17 days
  when the correlation between the forecast and observation drops to 0.5. T
 he models with a higher vertical resolution and better-resolved stratosphe
 re (high top) generally have better skills than those with a lower vertica
 l resolution (low top).\n\nTo understand the possible sources of predictio
 n skill of the NAO\, the reforecasts started from different initial condit
 ions are compared. We select cases according to phases of the quasi-bienni
 al oscillation (QBO)\, phases of the NAO\, and the properties of the Madde
 n-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the initial condition. When the initial cond
 itions are associated with the negative phase of the NAO or an active MJO 
 event\, the prediction skill is generally better in the S2S models.\n\nWed
 nesday Nov 20/ 2.30 PM/ Room 934 Burnside Hall\n\n \n\n \n\n \n
DTSTART:20191120T193000Z
DTEND:20191120T203000Z
LOCATION:Room 934\, Burnside Hall\, CA\, QC\, Montreal\, H3A 0B9\, 805 rue 
 Sherbrooke Ouest
SUMMARY:Forecast skill of the NAO in the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction
  Models
URL:/meteo/channels/event/forecast-skill-nao-subseason
 al-seasonal-prediction-models-302663
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